World of 100
Age was easier to guess because it follows a bell curve. My main issue was over estimating the amount of elderly people alive, I was surprised to see how few there are.
For the world geography I seriously misjudged the distribution. I put too many people in both North America and Europe. I believe I did that because those are the two continents that have the closest links to me. An other issue I have is over judging the size of Europe, I always think it's a lot bigger than it actually is. Asia includes two highly populated countries, China and India, and also Russia which isn't exactly densely populated but it's huge.
I was pretty far off with the world languages. I seriously underestimated the number people who would speak other languages and overestimated the number of English speakers. I think my issue was similar to the one with geography; the languages that were listed were the common languages that you hear about. There are hundreds of other languages that weren't listed, and many other countries that speak them. I started out with the languages I knew best and then divided the remainder of numbers among the left overs such as Hindustani, Bengali, Malay-Indonesian and, other. That process didn't exactly work out for me.
1. I wasn't very accurate in my guessing, the worst were drinking water, technology, computer and cell phone owners and, education. I think I was the furthest off on those because those are the "causes". Those are the issues that are always brought up, that people don't have drinking water or access to technology or education and because of that I guessed the numbers far lower than they actually are. I can't say that I've ever been extremely involved in helping to stop any of those"causes" so I didn't have a whole lot of knowledge on the subjects. Because of my lack of knowledge I over estimated the scale of the issues. The numbers that I guessed the closest were age, electricity and, religion, and I think the only reason I got close on those was because the statistics are easier to guess from previous knowledge. Age you can guess mathematically, electricity I guessed from previous knowledge and religion is easier to guess because it's an issue that's constantly being discussed.
2. I was most surprised by technology, education and, literacy, I thought those would have been a lot lower than they actually were. I was surprised by how many people have access to technology seven times as many people as I predicted are cell phone subscribers, two times as many people as I predicted would be active internet users and five times as many people out own or share a computer. I really had no idea that many people had access to technology. I was also surprised by the number of people that would be educated and literate. I was also surprised by how little the difference was in education between men and women.
3. I was generally pretty far off, I think it's because I don't have the best view of the rest of the world. I'm afraid that I have the classic American belief that most people speak English, live in North America and have worse conditions than us. I always thought that I had a better view of the world distribution but I guess that's not true. I don't think that I'm alone in having off numbers base on ones own world. People expect the rest of the world to be like where they live, that's just human nature.
Age was easier to guess because it follows a bell curve. My main issue was over estimating the amount of elderly people alive, I was surprised to see how few there are.
For the world geography I seriously misjudged the distribution. I put too many people in both North America and Europe. I believe I did that because those are the two continents that have the closest links to me. An other issue I have is over judging the size of Europe, I always think it's a lot bigger than it actually is. Asia includes two highly populated countries, China and India, and also Russia which isn't exactly densely populated but it's huge.
I was pretty far off with the world languages. I seriously underestimated the number people who would speak other languages and overestimated the number of English speakers. I think my issue was similar to the one with geography; the languages that were listed were the common languages that you hear about. There are hundreds of other languages that weren't listed, and many other countries that speak them. I started out with the languages I knew best and then divided the remainder of numbers among the left overs such as Hindustani, Bengali, Malay-Indonesian and, other. That process didn't exactly work out for me.
1. I wasn't very accurate in my guessing, the worst were drinking water, technology, computer and cell phone owners and, education. I think I was the furthest off on those because those are the "causes". Those are the issues that are always brought up, that people don't have drinking water or access to technology or education and because of that I guessed the numbers far lower than they actually are. I can't say that I've ever been extremely involved in helping to stop any of those"causes" so I didn't have a whole lot of knowledge on the subjects. Because of my lack of knowledge I over estimated the scale of the issues. The numbers that I guessed the closest were age, electricity and, religion, and I think the only reason I got close on those was because the statistics are easier to guess from previous knowledge. Age you can guess mathematically, electricity I guessed from previous knowledge and religion is easier to guess because it's an issue that's constantly being discussed.
2. I was most surprised by technology, education and, literacy, I thought those would have been a lot lower than they actually were. I was surprised by how many people have access to technology seven times as many people as I predicted are cell phone subscribers, two times as many people as I predicted would be active internet users and five times as many people out own or share a computer. I really had no idea that many people had access to technology. I was also surprised by the number of people that would be educated and literate. I was also surprised by how little the difference was in education between men and women.
3. I was generally pretty far off, I think it's because I don't have the best view of the rest of the world. I'm afraid that I have the classic American belief that most people speak English, live in North America and have worse conditions than us. I always thought that I had a better view of the world distribution but I guess that's not true. I don't think that I'm alone in having off numbers base on ones own world. People expect the rest of the world to be like where they live, that's just human nature.
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